OCR hold expected today but could a July rate hike be next?

Economists expect the Reserve Bank to hold the official cash rate today, but attention has already shifted to whether a July hike is on the table.

Recent inflation data has been stubborn enough to keep the possibility alive, even as parts of the domestic economy remain visibly soft.

The Reserve Bank's difficulty is that the pressures are not evenly spread: tradeable inflation has eased while domestic costs — rates, insurance and utilities — keep climbing.

For mortgage holders, the practical question is whether to fix short in anticipation of relief or accept a longer term for certainty.

Commentators will be reading the accompanying statement closely, since the language around future moves usually matters more to markets than the decision itself.